New climate data set to ‘future-proof’ buildings across the UK

A recent project between the Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers (CIBSE) and the University of Exeter has delivered transformative improvements and updates to the weather data that informs building design and regulations.

The future weather data, which shows how climate change will affect energy consumption and overheating in buildings across the UK, has been updated using the latest Met Office climate model outputs, to help ensure buildings are well-adapted to the impacts of climate change in future.

Delivered through a Knowledge Transfer Partnership and led by Dr Hailun Xie, the project team has now created over 5,000 new weather files covering the whole UK. The new files give more detailed and accurate representations of how the UK climate changes from now until the end of the century under different emission scenarios.

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The project delivered a raft of improvements to these weather files, including:

1. More ‘granular climate zones’. The project created 28 granular climate zones across the UK. These zones give a more detailed breakdown of the differences between neighbouring regions that, despite their geographical proximity, can face distinct weather patterns, such as London’s urban microclimate. Previously, there was no concept of climate zones in the UK, and the weather files referred to 16 arbitrary locations which were selected based on proximity, as opposed to their suitability in representing the climate.

2. Updated climate projections. The climate projections that are used to create future weather files have been updated, ensuring that building design guidance and standards are in line with the latest climate change projections (UKCP18).

3. Updated climate impacts. The underlying observation data have been updated with the up-to-date information about the UK’s climate over the last thirty years (1994-2023), an update from the previous period (1984-2013).

4. Satellite-based solar data. For the first time, the satellite-based solar radiation data were incorporated in the weather files, to enable a more accurate evaluation of the sun’s potential impacts on the performance of buildings across the country.

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The new weather files will be adopted by the built environment sector as the standard data for building performance assessment and are hoped to be adopted into regulations in the near future. This new data gives designers, engineers, and regulators richer insights into how future weather changes will affect building performance, empowering them to make informed decisions and future-proof new developments as the UK’s climate changes.

“The weather data files produced by the partnership between University of Exeter and CIBSE are critical to future proofing building design and are essential in ensuring the UK meets its Net Zero targets.”

Zoe De Grussa, Research Manager, CIBSE

For the project’s final stages, the team worked closely with several external partners to test the new weather files rigorously and collected feedback from industry experts before the official release. To enable a smooth user experience, CIBSE is now looking to develop a digital tool that allows users to seamlessly access the weather files they need and visualize the data by inputting a few key details about their location.

Speaking about the project, CIBSE’s Research Manager Zoe De Grussa, said: “The weather data files produced by the partnership between University of Exeter and CIBSE are critical to future proofing building design and are essential in ensuring the UK meets its Net Zero targets.

“Buildings designed with future weather conditions taken into consideration are essential for improving occupant health and well-being, building safety, and the environmental sustainability of buildings, whilst delivering economic gains through energy efficiency, cost savings, material and system optimisation and climate resilience. As climate change continues to affect weather patterns, their use in creating adaptive, efficient, and sustainable buildings will be heavily relied on.”

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Learn More

This KTP project was funded by Innovate UK, to support business-led innovation and access to university expertise. The KTP Associate was Dr Hailun Xie. The University of Exeter’s academic supervisors were Dr Matt Eames and Professor Peter Challenor.

CIBSE is the standard setter and authority on building services engineering. It publishes Guidance and Codes which are internationally recognised as authoritative and sets the criteria for best practice in the profession. Find out more here.

Knowledge Transfer Partnerships (KTPs) with the University of Exeter give organisations the opportunity to access new expertise, develop new products and services, and unlock industry-leading solutions. Our KTP team have delivered over 100 successful projects to date, and were voted National KTP Award winners for ‘Business Impact and Transformation’ and ‘Technical Excellence’ in 2022. Learn more here.